If the polls and the punters are anything to go by, this one’s about as close to a foregone conclusion as it gets. Labor is sitting on almost twice the primary vote of their nearest rivals, and the betting markets have them at $1.01, that’s a 99% chance of a Malinauskas Labor Government win, according to the bookies.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Remember all that speculation that the new donation reforms would scare candidates off running? Well, that didn’t happen. Nominations are actually up 50%, smashing the previous record along the way. Hammond and Port Adelaide are leading the charge with 12 candidates each, Mount Gambier isn’t far behind with 11, and across the board the average seat now has 8 candidates fighting for your vote.
One more thing worth knowing is that this election isn’t just a single Saturday anymore. Thanks to reforms allowing any voter to cast an early vote, polling is effectively a week-long event. Votes started flowing last Saturday (14 March), and by the time you’re reading this, over 70,000 South Australians have already had their say. Polls close at 6pm this Saturday, 21 March.
Given the national discontent fuelling the rise of One Nation, you could be forgiven for expecting to see both major parties taking a primary vote hit in this election. However, it seems the Malinauskas Government is weathering the political storm sweeping across the country. In February, our special edition of Mood of the Nation polled South Australians to hear their views on Government performance and a range of key election issues.
Most South Australians, including a majority of Liberal voters, think the Malinauskas Labor Government is doing a good job. Ask them the same question about the Federal Government, and only 31% agree. That’s a pretty remarkable gap, and it cuts right across party lines.
The conventional wisdom of Australian political campaigns was that voters trusted the Liberal Party to manage the economy, security and law and order issues, while Labor was more trusted to manage education, health and the environment. But does that still hold true? Our polling found a very different story being told.
Just as we saw during the last Federal campaign, with ‘neither / someone else’ also polling higher than the Liberals in all categories. That’s true even for issues like crime, where the Liberals committed considerable resources to position themselves as the Party that can be trusted to deal with law and order issues. It turns out they may have done themselves a disservice by making it such a prominent part of their campaign, because according to the polls, when South Australians ask themselves who they can trust to deal with crime, only one in six think of the Liberal Party.
We’ve been keeping a close eye on the key announcements being made on the campaign trail. Click here for a brief outline of policy announcements across the major election themes so far. For the full picture on each party’s platform, you can read Labor’s complete policy suite here and the Liberal Party’s here.
The state election is shaping up to be historic on multiple fronts. A record field of candidates. A week of early voting that’s already seen hundreds of thousands cast their ballots. A governing party defying national trends and holding strong on every issue that matters to South Australians. Whether the result lands as predicted or Saturday night throws up a surprise, one thing is certain: the next parliament will have its work cut out on housing, health, and cost of living — and South Australians will be watching closely to see who delivers.
Reach out to our Adelaide office if you would like further insights about Saturday’s election and what the outcome will mean for you.
Sandy Biar, Associate Partner and Adelaide Office Head | [email protected]
This Mood of the Nation research was conducted in February 2026. It surveyed 2,166 Australians aged 18+ (803 in South Australia).
